IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/xrs/sfbmaa/07-51.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Ultimate Sampling Dilemma in Experience-Based Decision Making

Author

Listed:
  • Fiedler, Klaus

    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504/ Universität Heidelberg)

Abstract

Computer simulations and two experiments are reported to delineate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to take the role of a manager who is to make purchasing decisions based on positive versus negative feedback about three providers in two different product domains. When information sampling (from a computerized data base) was over, they had to make inferences about actual differences in the data base from which the sample was drawn (e.g., about the actual superiority of different providers, or about the most likely origins of negatively valenced products). The ultimate sampling dilemma consists in a forced choice between two search strategies that both have their advantages and their drawbacks: natural sampling and deliberate sampling of information relevant to the inference task. Both strategies leave the sample unbiased for specific inferences but create errors or biases for other inferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiedler, Klaus, 2007. "The Ultimate Sampling Dilemma in Experience-Based Decision Making," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-51, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:07-51
    Note: The present research was supported by various grants from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. Thanks to Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage, Tobias Vogel, Peter Freytag, and Yaakov Kareev for their helpful and constructive comments on a draft of this article. Correspondence should be addressed to Klaus Fiedler, Psychologisches Institut, Universität Heidelberg, Hauptstrasse 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/publications/dp07-51.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:07-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carsten Schmidt (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.