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Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Bernasconi, Michele () (Università dell'Insubria)
Kirchkamp, Oliver () (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)
Paruolo, Paolo () (University of Insubria)
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We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We measure the degree to which participants use fiscal data for their forecasts. Agents' expectations are found neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations but, instead, follow an augmented-adaptive scheme. Methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed.
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number
04-27.
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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 26 Jul 2004Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:04-27Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, and partial financial support from Italian MIUR grants ex 60% is gratefully acknowledged.Contact details of provider: Postal: D-68131 Mannheim Phone: (49) (0) 621-292-2547 Fax: (49) (0) 621-292-5594 Email: Web page: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Experiments ; fiscal policy ; expectations ; causality ; cointegration ; panel data ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior D89 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Other E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
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"Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data ,"
Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications
04-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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Oliver Kirchkamp & Michele Bernasconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2006.
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
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Oliver Kirchkamp & Michele Bernasconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2006.
"Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data ,"
CRIEFF Discussion Papers
0608, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2004.
"Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data ,"
Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications
04-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
[Downloadable!] Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2009.
"Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data ,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 253-265, May.
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