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On the Risks of Stocks in the Long Run:A Probabilistic Approach Based on Measures of Shortfall Risk

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Author Info
Albrecht, Peter () (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)
Maurer, Raimond () (Lehrstuhl fuer Investment, Portfolio Management und Alterssicherung)
Ruckpaul, Ulla () (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

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Abstract

The present paper examines the long-term risks of a representative one-time investment in German stocks (DAX/0) in real terms relative to various risk free investments (returns of 0%, 2% and 4% in real terms) as well as relative to a representative investment in German bonds (REXP). As underlying risk measures the shortfall probability, the mean excess loss (conditional shortfall expectation) as well as the product of these two measures, the shortfall expectation have been used. One main structural result is that the mean excess loss is monotonously increasing over time. This reveals a long-term worst case-characteristic of a stock investment.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number 01-12.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:01-12

Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Manuel Ammann & Heinz Zimmermann, 2000. "Evaluating the Long-Term Risk of Equity Investments in a Portfolio Insurance Framework," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 424-438, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Albrecht, Peter & Maurer, Raimond & Möller, Matthias, 1997. "Shortfall-Risiko/Excess-Chance-Entscheidungskalküle: Grundlagen und Beziehungen zum Bernoulli-Prinzip," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 97-17, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  3. Lynn Wirch, Julia & Hardy, Mary R., 1999. "A synthesis of risk measures for capital adequacy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 337-347, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Albrecht, Peter & Maurer, Raimond, 2000. "100% Aktien zur Altersvorsorge - Über die Langfristrisiken einer Aktienanlage," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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  1. Klos, Alexander & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2002. "Über kurz oder lang - Welche Rolle spielt der Anlagehorizont bei Investitionsentscheidungen?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-49, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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