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How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From A Laboratory Experiment

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Author Info
Daniel Houser ()
Joachim Winter (Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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Abstract

We use a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete choice decision problem. Our experimental design induces preferences up to each subject’s subjective rates of time preference, leaving unrestricted only this parameter and the decision rule that the subject uses in solving the problem. We analyze the data under the assumption that all subjects use the rational expectations decision rule, and also under weaker behavioral assumptions that allow for heterogeneity in the way people form decisions. We find no evidence that assuming rational expectations distorts inferences about the cross-sectional distribution of discount rates.

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Paper provided by Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging, University of Mannheim in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 02005.

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Date of creation: 16 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:xrs:meawpa:02005

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Web page: http://www.mea.uni-mannheim.de/

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - General
C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Statistical Decision Theory; Operations Research

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  1. Anderlini, Luca & Canning, David, 2001. "Structural Stability Implies Robustness to Bounded Rationality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 395-422, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Houser, Daniel, 2003. "Bayesian analysis of a dynamic stochastic model of labor supply and saving," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 289-335, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ellison, Glenn & Fudenberg, Drew, 1993. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 612-43, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hey, John D., 1987. "Still searching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 137-144, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. John T. Warner & Saul Pleeter, 2001. "The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 33-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "Discount rate heterogeneity and social security reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 117-146, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hey, John D., 1982. "Search for rules for search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 65-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cox, James C & Oaxaca, Ronald L, 1999. "Can Supply and Demand Parameters Be Recovered from Data Generated by Market Institutions?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 285-97, July.
  10. Martin Lettau & Harald Uhlig, 1999. "Rules of Thumb versus Dynamic Programming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 148-174, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony Jr., 1996. "Rules of thumb in macroeconomic equilibrium A quantitative analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 527-558, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Schunk, Daniel & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-23, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Daniel Houser & Kevin McCabe & Michael Keane & Antoine Bechara, 2003. "Heuristics Used By Humans With Prefrontal Cortex Damage: Toward An Empirical Model Of Phineas Gage," Experimental 0308002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daniel Houser & Robert Kurzban, 2003. "Conditional cooperation and group dynamics: Experimental evidence from a sequential public goods game," Experimental 0307001, EconWPA, revised 21 Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Daniel Houser & Michael Keane & Kevin McCabe, 2002. "Behavior in a dynamic decision problem: An analysis of experimental evidence using a bayesian type classification algorithm," Experimental 0211001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Rothlauf, Franz & Schunk, Daniel & Pfeiffer, Jella, 2005. "Classification of Human Decision Behavior: Finding," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-04, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  6. Franz Rothlauf & Daniel Schunk & Jella Pfeiffer, 2005. "Classification of Human Decision Behavior: Finding Modular Decision Rules with Genetic Algorithms," MEA discussion paper series 05079, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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