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The Determinants of Merger Waves

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Author Info
Klaus Gugler
Dennis C. Mueller
B. Burçin Yurtoglu

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Abstract

One of the most conspicuous features of mergers is that they come in waves, and that these waves are correlated with increases in share prices and price/earnings ratios. We test four hypotheses that have been advanced to explain merger waves: the industry shocks, q-, overvaluation and managerial discretion hypotheses. The first two are neoclassical in that they assume that managers maximize profits, mergers create wealth, and the capital market is efficient. The last two, behavioral hypotheses relax these assumptions in different ways. We test the four hypotheses by estimating models of the amounts of assets acquired by firms, models that identify the characteristics of targets, and estimates of the returns to acquirers’ shareholders. Although some support is found for each of the four hypotheses, most of the evidence favors the two behavioral hypotheses.

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Die Determinanten von Fusionswellen)
Es ist eines der auffallendsten Merkmale von Unternehmenszusammen-schlüssen, dass sie in Wellen stattfinden und dass diese Wellen mit dem Anstieg der Aktienkurse und des Preis/ Ertragsverhältnisses zusammen hängen. Wir untersuchen vier Hypothesen, die als Erklärung von Unternehmenszusammenschlüssen genannt werden: die der Industrieschocks, die q-Hypothese, die Hypothese der Überbewertung und die Hypothesen des Ermessensspielraums von Managern. Die ersten zwei sind neoklassischer Natur insofern als sie davon ausgehen, dass Manager Gewinne maximieren, Unternehmenszusammenschlüsse Reichtum schaffen und der Kapitalmarkt effizient ist. Die zwei letzteren sind Verhaltenshypothesen, die die neo-klassischen Annahmen (auf unterschiedliche Weise) lockern. Wir untersuchen die vier Hypothesen, indem wir Modellschätzungen der von Unternehmen akquirierten Aktien vornehmen. Dabei werden in den Modellen die Charakteristika der bei Zusammenschlüssen aufgekauften Unternehmen identifiziert und die Rendite für die Aktionäre des aufkaufenden Unternehmens geschätzt. Auch wenn alle vier Hypothesen in gewisser Hinsicht Bestätigung finden, untermauern die meisten Belege die zwei Verhaltenshypothesen.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG) in its series CIG Working Papers with number SP II 2006-01.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2006-01

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Related research
Keywords: Mergers waves; managerial discretion; overvaluation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Albert Banal-Estañol & Paul Heidhues & Rainer Nitsche & Jo Seldeslacht, 2006. "Merger Clusters during Economic Booms," City University Economics Discussion Papers 06/07, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Albert Banal-Estañol & Jo Seldeslachts, 2005. "Merger Failures," CIG Working Papers SP II 2005-09, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG). [Downloadable!]
  3. Panayotis Dessyllas & Alan Hughes, 2005. "R&D and Patenting Activity and the Propensity to Acquire in High Technology Industries," Industrial Organization 0507008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Panayotis Dessyllas & Alan Hughes, 2005. "R&D and Patenting Activity and the Propensity to Acquire in High Technology Industries," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp298, ESRC Centre for Business Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Song, Moon H. & Walkling, Ralph A., 2005. "Anticipation, Acquisitions and Bidder Returns," Working Paper Series 2005-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Adelina Gschwandtner, 2004. "Evolution of Profit Persistence in the US: Evidence from four 20-years periods," Vienna Economics Papers 0410, University of Vienna, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barros, Pedro Pita & Clougherty, Joseph A & Seldeslachts, Jo, 2007. "Remedy for Now but Prohibit for Tomorrow: The Deterrence Effects of Merger Policy Tools," CEPR Discussion Papers 6437, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Ralph Siebert & Klaus Gugler, 2004. "Market Power versus Efficiency Effects of Mergers and Research Joint Ventures: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," NBER Working Papers 10323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Panayotis Dessyllas & Alan Hughes, 2005. "The Revealed Preferences of High Technology Acquirers: An Analysis of the Characteristics of their Targets," Industrial Organization 0507009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Holger Breinlich, 2006. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Restructuring through Mergers and Acquisitions," Economics Discussion Papers 619, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Dennis C. Mueller & B. Burcin Yurtoglu, 2007. "Corporate governance and the returns to acquiring firms' shareholders: an international comparison," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 879-896. [Downloadable!]
  12. Albert Banal-Estanol & Paul Heidhues & Rainer Nitsche & Jo Seldeslachts, 2009. "Screening and Merger Activity," Discussion Papers 270, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Panayotis Dessyllas & Alan Hughes, 2005. "The revealed preferences of high technology acquirers: an analysis of the characteristics of their targets," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp306, ESRC Centre for Business Research. [Downloadable!]
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