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A Local Vector Autoregressive Framework and its Applications to Multivariate Time Series Monitoring and Forecasting

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  • Ying Chen
  • Bo Li
  • Linlin Niu

Abstract

Our proposed local vector autoregressive (LVAR) model has time-varying parameters that allow it to be safely used in both stationary and non-stationary situations. The estimation is conducted over an interval of local homogeneity where the parameters are approximately constant. The local interval is identified in a sequential testing procedure. Numerical analysis and real data application are conducted to illustrate the monitoring function and forecast performance of the proposed model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Chen & Bo Li & Linlin Niu, 2013. "A Local Vector Autoregressive Framework and its Applications to Multivariate Time Series Monitoring and Forecasting," Working Papers 2013-12-05, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    • Handle: RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002208
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    File URL: http://research.soe.xmu.edu.cn/repec/upload/201312051600491544.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    11. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    12. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Niels Gillmann & Ostap Okhrin, 2023. "Adaptive local VAR for dynamic economic policy uncertainty spillover," Papers 2302.02808, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive estimation; Multivariate time series; Non-stationarity; Yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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