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Heterogeneous Expectations, Adaptive Learning, and Evolutionary Dynamics

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Author Info

  • Eran A. Guse

    (Department of Economics, West Virginia University)

Abstract

This paper presents a linear self-referential macroeconomic model with the possibility of multiple equilibria where agents have the choice of using one of two forecasting models (one of minimum state variable form and the other of sunspot form) to form expectations of current and future prices. Endogenous predictor selection is modeled as an evolutionary game where individuals choose among the forecasting models based on relative performance. Some Nash solutions are not relevant as they are not stable under evolutionary or adaptive learning. Finally, it is shown that the sunspot equilibrium is fragile against temporary shocks to information costs.

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File URL: http://www.be.wvu.edu/phd_economics/pdf/09-01.pdf
File Function: First version, November 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, West Virginia University in its series Working Papers with number 09-01.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wvu:wpaper:09-01

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Web page: http://www.be.wvu.edu/phd_economics/
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Related research

Keywords: Adaptive Learning; Evolutionary Dynamics; Heterogeneous Expectations; Multiple Equilibria; Rational Expectations.;

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References

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  1. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Learning To Forecast And Cyclical Behavior Of Output And Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 1-27, February.
  2. Sethi, Rajiv & Franke, Reiner, 1995. "Behavioural Heterogeneity under Evolutionary Pressure: Macroeconomic Implications of Costly Optimisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 583-600, May.
  3. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March.
  4. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June.
  5. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.
  6. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
  7. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  8. George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-85, September.
  10. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April.
  11. Guse, E., 2005. "Learning in a Misspecified Multivariate Self-referential Linear Stochastic Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0548, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Heinemann, Maik, 2000. "Convergence Of Adaptive Learning And Expectational Stability: The Case Of Multiple Rational-Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 263-288, September.
  13. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
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  16. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
  17. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2008. "Replicator dynamics in a Cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 224-244, February.
  18. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  19. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
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  21. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
  22. Branch William & McGough Bruce, 2004. "Multiple Equilibria in Heterogeneous Expectations Models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, December.
  23. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  24. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  25. W. Brian Arthur, 1992. "On Learning and Adaptation in the Economy," Working Papers 854, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  26. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  27. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  28. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
  29. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November.
  30. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. William R. Parke & George A. Waters, 2011. "On the Evolutionary Stability of Rational Expectations," Working Paper Series 20111002, Illinois State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Heterogeneous sunspots solutions under learning and replicator dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 160, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Guse, Eran A., 2014. "Adaptive learning, endogenous uncertainty, and asymmetric dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 355-373.
  5. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  6. Goldbaum, David & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Learning and adaptation's impact on market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 635-653, December.
  7. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "Monetary Policy Transmission in a Model with Animal Spirits and House Price Booms and Busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 8804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
  9. Michele Berardi, 2013. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 186, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  10. Berardi, Michele, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 776-792, May.
  11. Carravetta, Francesco & Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Model reference adaptive expectations in Markov-switching economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 551-559.
  12. Joel Carton & Eran A. Guse, 2010. "Replicator Dynamic Learning in Muth's Model of Price Movements," Working Papers 10-18, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.

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