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Storage and the Electricity Forward Premium

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  • Julia Popova

    (West Virginia University Department of Economics)

  • Stratford Douglas

    (West Virginia University Department of Economics)

Abstract

We develop and test a model describing the influence of natural gas storage on the electricity forward premium. The model is constructed by linking the effect of gas storage on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to an established model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. The model predicts a (weakly) positive effect of gas storage on the electricity forward premium when loads are light, but a sharply negative effect when demand for electricity is high and demand for gas is low. The model predicts a daily pattern of stronger effects in the afternoon. Empirical results, based on PJM data, strongly support the model.

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File URL: http://www.be.wvu.edu/phd_economics/pdf/06-16.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, West Virginia University in its series Working Papers with number 06-16 Classification-.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wvu:wpaper:06-16

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References

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  1. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
  2. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
  3. Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, 08.
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Cited by:
  1. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
  2. Bloys van Treslong, Adriaan & Huisman, Ronald, 2010. "A comment on: Storage and the electricity forward premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 321-324, March.
  3. Viehmann, Johannes, 2011. "Risk premiums in the German day-ahead Electricity Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 386-394, January.
  4. Redl, Christian & Haas, Reinhard & Huber, Claus & Böhm, Bernhard, 2009. "Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 356-364, May.
  5. Rafal Weron & Michal Zator, 2013. "Revisiting the relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  6. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in electricity wholesale spot markets: empirical evidence from Germany," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-11, Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS), Technische Universität München.
  7. Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  8. Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel, 2008. "Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto," IKERLANAK 2008-33, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
  9. Huisman, Ronald & Kilic, Mehtap, 2012. "Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 892-898.
  10. Bloys van Treslong, A. & Huisman, R., 2009. "A Comment on: Storage and the Electricity Forward Premium," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-042-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  11. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
  12. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Market efficiency and risk premia in short-term forward prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1931-1941.
  13. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2711-2721, May.
  14. Lazarczyk, Ewa, 2013. "Market Specific News and Its Impact on Electricity Prices – Forward Premia," Working Paper Series 953, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 20 Aug 2013.
  15. Botterud, Audun & Kristiansen, Tarjei & Ilic, Marija D., 2010. "The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 967-978, September.

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