Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law
AbstractWe develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black swans.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/11/01.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in EPJ – Special Topics "Discussion & Debate: From black swans to dragon kings. Is there life beyond power laws?", 2011.
Black swan; Dragon king; Power-law; Weibull distribution; Tail behavior; Outlier; Hypothesis test;
Other versions of this item:
- Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law," Papers 1102.3712, arXiv.org.
- Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2011. "Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law," MPRA Paper 28959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2011-10-09 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2011-10-09 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
- Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison," Econometrics 0502004, EconWPA.
- Krzysztof Burnecki & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Visualization tools for insurance risk processes," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0501.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rafal Weron).
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