Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns

Contents:

Author Info

  • Szymon Borak
  • Adam Misiorek
  • Rafal Weron

Abstract

Many of the concepts in theoretical and empirical finance developed over the past decades – including the classical portfolio theory, the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing model or the RiskMetrics variance-covariance approach to VaR – rest upon the assumption that asset returns follow a normal distribution. But this assumption is not justified by empirical data! Rather, the empirical observations exhibit excess kurtosis, more colloquially known as fat tails or heavy tails. This chapter is intended as a guide to heavy-tailed models. We first describe the historically oldest heavy-tailed model – the stable laws. Next, we briefly characterize their recent lighter-tailed generalizations, the socalled truncated and tempered stable distributions. Then we study the class of generalized hyperbolic laws, which – like tempered stable distributions – can be classified somewhere between infinite variance stable laws and the Gaussian distribution. Finally, we provide numerical examples.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_10_01.pdf
File Function: Original version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/10/01.

as in new window
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1001

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Wybrzeze Wyspianskiego 27, 50-370 Wroclaw
Phone: +48-71-3203530
Fax: +48-71-3202654
Email:
Web page: http://prac.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Heavy-tailed distribution; Stable distribution; Tempered stable distribution; Generalized hyperbolic distribution; Asset return; Random number generation; Parameter estimation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ulrich Horst & Santiago Moreno-Bromberg, 2011. "Efficiency and Equilibria in Games of Optimal Derivative Design," Papers 1107.0839, arXiv.org.
  2. Michael C. Burda & Mark Weder, 2010. "Payroll Taxes, Social Insurance and Business Cycles," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Aleksander Janicki & Aleksander Weron, 1994. "Can One See Alpha-stable Variables and Processes?," HSC Research Reports HSC/94/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  4. Mengmeng Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2010. "Adaptive Interest Rate Modelling," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-029, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rainer Schulz & Weining Wang, 2010. "Prognose mit nichtparametrischen Verfahren," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-041, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129.
  7. Ulrich Horst & Felix Naujokat, 2010. "Illiquidity and Derivative Valuation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Dominicy, Yves & Veredas, David, 2013. "The method of simulated quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 235-247.
  9. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "Characterising equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2620-2637.
  10. Borak, Szymon & Misiorek, Adam & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 25494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. GARCIA, René & RENAULT, Eric & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Estimation of stable distributions by indirect inference," CORE Discussion Papers 2006112, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  12. repec:sfi:sfiwpa:500035 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
  14. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  15. Krzysztof Burnecki & Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2010. "Building Loss Models," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  16. Yves Dominicy & David Veredas, 2013. "The method of simulated quantiles," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136280, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. Maria Grith & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Estimation of Risk-Neutral Densities," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-021, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  18. repec:sfi:sfiwpa:9705087 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  20. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yarema Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2010. "Uniform confidence bands for pricing kernels," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  21. Agnieszka Janek & Tino Kluge & Rafał Weron & Uwe Wystup, 2010. "FX Smile in the Heston Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  22. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2010. "Why Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  23. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
  24. Puriya Abbassi & Dieter Nautz, 2010. "Monetary Transmission Right from the Start: The (Dis)Connection Between the Money Market and the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  25. Rama Cont & Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 1997. "Scaling in stock market data: stable laws and beyond," Papers cond-mat/9705087, arXiv.org.
  26. Nikolaus Hautsch & Mark Podolskij, 2013. "Preaveraging-Based Estimation of Quadratic Variation in the Presence of Noise and Jumps: Theory, Implementation, and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 165-183, April.
  27. Weron, Rafał, 2004. "Computationally intensive Value at Risk calculations," Papers 2004,32, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
  28. Fang Yao, 2010. "Aggregate Hazard Function in Price-Setting: A Bayesian Analysis Using Macro Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  29. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
  30. Ulrich Horst & Traian A. Pirvu & Gonçalo Dos Reis, 2010. "On Securitization, Market Completion and Equilibrium Risk Transfer," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-010, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  31. Juliane Scheffel, 2010. "Honey, I’ll Be Working Late Tonight. The Effect of Individual Work Routines on Leisure Time Synchronization of Couples," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  32. Rafal Weron, 2003. "Levy-stable distributions revisited: tail index > 2 does not exclude the Levy-stable regime," Econometrics 0305003, EconWPA.
  33. Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang & Jeong, Seok-Oh, 2008. "Nonparametric Risk Management With Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 910-923.
  34. Lombardi, Marco J., 2007. "Bayesian inference for [alpha]-stable distributions: A random walk MCMC approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2688-2700, February.
  35. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yuichi Mori & Jürgen Symanzik, 2012. "Computational Statistics (Journal)," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  36. Lillestøl, Jostein, 2000. "Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,112, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  37. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter E. & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," CFR Working Papers 11-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  38. Weron, Rafal, 1996. "On the Chambers-Mallows-Stuck method for simulating skewed stable random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 165-171, June.
  39. Johanna Kappus & Markus Reiß, 2010. "Estimation of the characteristics of a Lévy process observed at arbitrary frequency," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  40. Aleksander Janicki & Aleksander Weron, 1994. "Simulation and Chaotic Behavior of Alpha-stable Stochastic Processes," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook9401.
  41. Rosinski, Jan, 2007. "Tempering stable processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(6), pages 677-707, June.
  42. Jérémy Poirot & Peter Tankov, 2006. "Monte Carlo Option Pricing for Tempered Stable (CGMY) Processes," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 327-344, December.
  43. Philipp Hartmann & Jon Danielsson, 1998. "The Cost of Conservatism: Extreme Returns, Value-at Risk, and the Basle Multiplicaiton Factor," FMG Special Papers sp100, Financial Markets Group.
  44. Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2005. "Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison," Econometrics 0502004, EconWPA.
  45. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  46. Winfried Stute & Wenceslao Manteiga & Manuel Quindimil, 1993. "Bootstrap based goodness-of-fit-tests," Metrika, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 243-256, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Nicole Wiebach & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2010. "Context Effects as Customer Reaction on Delisting of Brands," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Malec, Peter & Schienle, Melanie, 2010. "Capturing the zero: A new class of zero-augmented distributions and multiplicative error processes," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/19, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Kenneth Bruninx & Erik Delarue & William D'haeseleer, 2013. "Statistical description of the error on wind power forecasts via a Lévy α-stable distribution," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/50, European University Institute.
  4. Joanna Janczura & Sebastian Orzel & Agnieszka Wylomanska, 2011. "Subordinated alpha-stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a tool for financial data description," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  5. Szymon Borak & Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  6. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R., 2011. "Every symmetric 3×3 global game of strategic complementarities has noise-independent selection," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 749-754.
  7. Franziska Schulze, 2010. "Spatial Dependencies in German Matching Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  8. Vladimir Panov, 2010. "Estimation of the signal subspace without estimation of the inverse covariance matrix," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-050, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Greg Hannsgen, 2011. "Infinite-variance, Alpha-stable Shocks in Monetary SVAR: Final Working Paper Version," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_682, Levy Economics Institute.
  10. Enno Mammen & Christoph Rothe & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Regression with Nonparametrically Generated Covariates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2010. "Executive Compensation Regulation and the Dynamics of the Pay-Performance Sensitivity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2010. "Heavy-tailed distributions in VaR calculations," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rafal Weron).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.