Short-term forecasting of electricity prices: Do we need a different model for each hour?
AbstractThis empirical paper is a continuation of our earlier work on time series forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices. Given the controversy in the literature whether to use one large model across all hours or 24 separate models, we study if the model structure (and not only the coefficients) should change for different periods of the day. We find that leaving out the statistically insignificant factors leads to, on average, better point forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/08/01.
Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in MET (Medium Econometrische Toepassingen) 16.2 (2008) 8-13.
Electricity price forecasting; Autoregression (AR) model; Threshold Autoregression (TAR) model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rafal Weron).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.