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The Synchronization of GDP Growth in the G7 during U.S. Recessions. Is this Time Different?

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  • Nikolaos Antonakakis
  • Johann Scharler

Abstract

Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model due to Engle (2002), we estimate time varying correlations of quarterly real GDP growth among the G7 countries. In general, we find that rather heterogeneous patterns of international synchronization exist during U.S. recessions. During the 2007 - 2009 recession, however, international co-movement increased substantially.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FIW in its series FIW Working Paper series with number 049.

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Length: 12
Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:049

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Keywords: Dynamic conditional correlation; Business cycle synchronization; Recession;

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References

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  1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
  3. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
  4. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  6. Claudia M. Buch & Kai Carstensen & Andrea Schertler, 2010. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Banks' Foreign Assets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 171-188, 02.
  7. Christopher Otrok & Ayhan Kose & Mario J. Crucini, 2009. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles," 2009 Meeting Papers 820, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 15432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Harald Badinger, 2012. "Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries," FIW Working Paper series 098, FIW.
  2. Susanne Bärenthaler-Sieber & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker, 2013. "Trade Synchronisation During Major Economic Crises," WIFO Working Papers 449, WIFO.
  3. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 277, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  4. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Business cycle synchronization during US recessions since the beginning of the 1870's," MPRA Paper 38341, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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