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A Prototype Model of EU's 2007 Enlargement

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Author Info
Fritz Breuss (wifo)
Abstract

EU's 2007 enlargement by Bulgaria and Romania is evaluated by applying a simple macroeconomic integration model able to encompass as many of the theoretically predicted integration effects possible. The direct integration effects of Bulgaria and Romania spill-over to EU15, including Austria and the 10 new member states of the 2004 EU enlargement. The pattern of the integration effects is qualitatively similar to those of EU?s 2004 enlargement by 10 new member states. Bulgaria and Romania gain much more from EU accession than the incumbents in the proportion of 20:1. In the medium-run up to 2020, Bulgaria and Romania can expect a sizable overall integration gain, amounting to additional ½ percentage point real GDP growth per annum. Within the incumbent EU member states Austria will gain somewhat more (+0.05%) than the average of EU15 (+0.02%) and the 10 new EU member states (+0.01%), which joined the EU in 2004.

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Paper provided by FIW in its series FIW Working Paper series with number 007.

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Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2007:i:007

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Keywords: Eu EU27 Enlargement Macroeconomic Integration spill over effects Bulgaria Romania

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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