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Die chinesische Investitionsoffensive "One Belt, One Road" Wirtschaftliche Potentiale für Österreich?

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  • Julia Grübler
  • Robert Stehrer

Abstract

Die Motive Chinas für eine Wiederbelebung der historischen Seidenstraßen sind vielseitig und sowohl von handels- als auch geopolitischer Bedeutung. Die „One Belt, One Road“-Initiative sieht den Ausbau von Straßen- und Zugverbindungen sowie von maritimer Infrastruktur vor. Dafür kommen mehrere Routen in Frage, die rund 40 Länder einschließen. Durch die chinesische Übernahme von 67 Prozent der Anteile am größten griechischen Hafen in Piräus im Juli 2016 liegt aktuell der geographische Fokus hinesischer Infrastrukturinvestitionen in Europa im Westbalkan. Durch Verträge oder Absichtserklärungen bekannte Projekte belaufen sich für diese Region auf über 10 Milliarden Euro. Kurzfristig könnten sich für Österreich Potenziale durch die für Infrastrukturprojekte gefragte heimische Expertise z.B. im Tunnelbau oder in der Forschung, sowie über bestehende Handelsverflechtungen mit Zentral- und Osteuropa ergeben. Eine Analyse mittels internationaler Input-Output-Tabellen zeigt leicht positive Effekte für Österreich. Aktuelle, durch China finanzierte Projekte im Westbalkan könnten demnach das österreichische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) aufgrund von Handelsverflechtungen um 0,03 Prozent erhöhen. Mittelfristig könnte auch die Erhöhung des Einkommens in den Westbalkanstaaten die Nachfrage nach österreichischen Produkten steigern. Zudem verkürzen die anvisierten Infrastrukturprojekte Transportzeiten entlang der Seidenstraßen erheblich. Österreich könnte diese Entwicklungen nutzen, um Exporte nach Asien zu erhöhen.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Grübler & Robert Stehrer, 2017. "Die chinesische Investitionsoffensive "One Belt, One Road" Wirtschaftliche Potentiale für Österreich?," FIW Policy Brief series 033, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2017:i:033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephan Barisitz, 2017. "Central Asia and the Silk Road," Studies in Economic History, Springer, number 978-3-319-51213-6, June.
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    3. Mario Holzner & Robert Stehrer & Hermine Vidovic, 2015. "Infrastrukturinvestitionen am Westbalkan," wiiw Research Reports in German language 2, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Timmer, Marcel P. & Los, Bart & Stehrer, Robert & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2016. "An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 Release," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-162, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    5. Bekkers, Eddy & Francois, Joseph & Tomberger, Patrick, 2016. "Tomorrow’s Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement," Papers 974, World Trade Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arbeitsproduktivität; Totale Faktorproduktivität; Österreich;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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