Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Testing For Cointegration Rank Using Bayes Factors

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sugita, Katsuhiro

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper proposes Bayesian methods for estimating the cointegration rank using Bayes factors. We consider natural conjugate priors for computing Bayes factors. First, we estimate the cointegrating vectors for each possible rank. Then, we compute the Bayes factors for each rank against 0 rank. Monte Carlo simulations show that using Bayes factor with conjugate priors produces fairly good results. We apply the method to demand for money in the US.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2008/twerp654.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 654.

    as in new window
    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:654

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: CV4 7AL COVENTRY
    Phone: +44 (0) 2476 523202
    Fax: +44 (0) 2476 523032
    Web page: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Cointegration ; MCMC ; Bayes factor;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Kleibergen, F.R. & Paap, R., 1998. "Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9821, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
    3. Johansen, S., 2000. "A Small Sample Correction of the Test for Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics Working Papers eco2000/15, European University Institute.
    4. BAUWENS, Luc & GIOT, Pierre, . "Gibbs sampling approach to cointegration," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1336, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
    6. John F. Geweke, 1995. "Bayesian reduced rank regression in econometrics," Working Papers 540, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Evans, Michael & Swartz, Timothy, 2000. "Approximating Integrals via Monte Carlo and Deterministic Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198502784.
    8. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:514-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
    10. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "On the Shape of the Likelihood/Posterior in Cointegration Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 514-551, August.
    11. Phillips, Peter C B, 1996. "Econometric Model Determination," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 763-812, July.
    12. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
    13. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
    14. Phillips, Peter C B & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "An Asymptotic Theory of Bayesian Inference for Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 381-412, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Gareth W. Peters & Balakrishnan Kannan & Ben Lasscock & Chris Mellen, 2010. "Model Selection and Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Cointegrated VAR model," Papers 1004.3830, arXiv.org.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:654. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helen Neal).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.