Seasonality, Cointegration, and the Forecasting of Energy Demand
AbstractMuch of the short-run movement in energy demand in the UK appears to be seasonal, and the contribution of long-run factors to short-run forecasts is slight. Nevertheless, using a variety of techniques, including a recently developed test that is applicable irrespective of the orders of integration of the data, we obtain a long-run income elasticity of demand of about one third, and we are unable to reject a zero price elasticity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 484.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
COINTEGRATION ; ENERGY ; SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
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