This paper considers the use of the Kalam filter to perform the seasonal adjustment and to calculate the variance of the signal extraction error in model-based seasonal adjustment procedures. The steady-state filter covariance is seen to provide a convenient basis for obtaining the variances not only the current adjustment but also subsequent revisions. The method is applied to the unobserved-components model we have recently proposed as a justification of the X-11 method, and to a real economic time series.
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Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006.
"Time Series Analysis,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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Other versions:
Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, M., 2006.
"Time Series Analysis,"
Working Papers
28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
[Downloadable!]