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Vanishing Cities: What Does the New Economic Geography Imply About the Efficiency of Urbanization?

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Alex Anas (State University of New York at Buffalo)

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Abstract

How should the size and number of cities evolve optimally as population grows? Stripped of the constraints of geography itself, the setup of the New Economic Geography implies that de-agglomeration (or de- urbanization) is efficient. The number of cities increases while the size of each decreases on the optimal path until the economy suddenly disperses to tiny towns of stand-alone firms each specializing in a unique good. The cause of this narrow result is the NEG’s strong emphasis on intercity trade to satisfy the taste for more goods. For the same aggregate population, a system of smaller cities saves time lost in commuting, has a larger labor supply and makes more goods than does a system of larger cities. Falling interurban trading costs favor this de- urbanization process. Only if intraurban commuting costs fall sufficiently, can a pattern of growing city sizes be efficient with growing population. Of course, when the number of cities or the geographic space itself is limited or asymmetric, then agglomeration can arise as an artifact of the constraints imposed by geography as demonstrated by numerous NEG models. This reveals that the central agglomerative force in the NEG is space itself and not the underlying economic relations.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0302005.

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Date of creation: 14 Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0302005

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
R12 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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  1. Krugman, Paul & Elizondo, Raul Livas, 1996. "Trade policy and the Third World metropolis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 137-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-52, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991. "Growth in Cities," NBER Working Papers 3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Helsley, Robert W. & Strange, William C., 1990. "Matching and agglomeration economies in a system of cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 189-212, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Abdel-Rahman, Hesham M., 1996. "When do cities specialize in production?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-22, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fujita, Masahisa & Krugman, Paul & Mori, Tomoya, 1999. "On the evolution of hierarchical urban systems1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 209-251, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476.
  7. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Henderson, J. Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1981. "Aspects of growth in a system of cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 117-139, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Anas, Alex & Xiong, Kai, 2003. "Intercity trade and the industrial diversification of cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 258-276, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. PICARD, Pierre & TABUCHI, Takatoshi, 2003. "Natural agglomeration," CORE Discussion Papers 2003101, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Murata, Yasusada & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2005. "A Simple Model of Economic Geography à la Helpman-Tabuchi," CEPR Discussion Papers 4936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Abdel-Rahman, Hesham M. & Anas, Alex, 2003. "Theories of system of cities," Working Papers 2003-08, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Abdel-Rahman, Hesham M., 2003. "The city network paradigm: new frontiers," Working Papers 2003-10, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  5. Berliant, Marcus & Wang, Ping, 2007. "Urban growth and subcenter formation: A trolley ride from the Staples Center to Disneyland and the Rose Bowl," MPRA Paper 2770, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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