Tax Burden and the Mismeasurement of State Tax Policy
AbstractTax Burden, defined as the ratio of total tax revenues over personal income, is prominently used to summarize state tax policy. We analyze the empirical relationship between changes in Tax Burden and changes in state tax policy from 1987 to 2000 – as measured by states’ own forecasts of the revenue impacts of tax legislation – and find that Tax Burden contains substantial measurement error. We explain this result by decomposing Tax Burden changes into three components: (1) changes in state tax policy, (2) income-induced changes in revenue that are unrelated to state tax policy, and (3) other factors that do not measure state tax policy. We empirically demonstrate the statistical significance of the second component, highlighting important consequences for studies that estimate the impact of taxes on economic growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0505001.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 03 May 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 38
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://126.96.36.199
Tax Policy; Fiscal Policy; Tax Burden; State Economic Development; Tax Rates;
Other versions of this item:
- W. Robert Reed & Cynthia L. Rogers, 2006. "Tax Burden and the Mismeasurement of State Tax Policy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(4), pages 404-426, July.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
- H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-05-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2005-05-07 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-MAC-2005-05-07 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PUB-2005-05-07 (Public Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yamarik, Steven, 2000. "Can tax policy help explain state-level macroeconomic growth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 211-215, August.
- Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994.
"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
- William Easterly & Sergio Rebelo, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mofidi, Alaeddin & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Do State and Local Taxes Affect Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 686-91, November.
- Knight, Brian G., 2000. "Supermajority voting requirements for tax increases: evidence from the states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 41-67, April.
- Michael Wasylenko, 1997. "Taxation and economic development: the state of the economic literature," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 37-52.
- Koester, Reinhard B & Kormendi, Roger C, 1989. "Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Some Supply-Side Hypotheses," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 367-86, July.
- Daniel R. Feenberg & William Gentry & David Gilroy & Harvey S. Rosen, 1989.
"Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts,"
NBER Working Papers
2628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
- Feenberg, D.R. & Gentry, W. & Gilroy, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1988. "Testing The Rationality Of State Revenue Forecasts," Papers 16, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
- Georgios Karras, 1999. "Taxes And Growth: Testing The Neoclassical And Endogenous Growth Models," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(2), pages 177-188, 04.
- Mullen, John K. & Williams, Martin, 1994. "Marginal tax rates and state economic growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 687-705, December.
- Benson, Bruce L & Johnson, Ronald N, 1986. "The Lagged Impact of State and Local Taxes on Economic Activity and Political Behavior," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(3), pages 389-401, July.
- Helms, L Jay, 1985. "The Effect of State and Local Taxes on Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 574-82, November.
- Joel Slemrod, 1995. "Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 373-431.
- Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, October.
- Bizer, David S. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1990.
"Testing the positive theory of government finance,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 123-141, August.
- Zsolt Becsi, 1996. "Do state and local taxes affect relative state growth?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Mar, pages 18-36.
- Michael A. Nelson, 2000. "Electoral Cycles and the Politics of State Tax Policy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(6), pages 540-560, November.
- Cassidy, Glenn & Kamlet, Mark S. & Nagin, Daniel S., 1989. "An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 321-331.
- Reed, W. Robert & Rogers, Cynthia L., 2003. "A study of quasi-experimental control group methods for estimating policy impacts," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-25, January.
- Rogers, Cynthia L. & Wu, Chen, 2012. "Employment by foreign firms in the U.S.: Do state incentives matter?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 664-680.
- W. Robert Reed & Cynthia L. Rogers & Mark Skidmore, 2008. "On Estimating Marginal Tax Rates and Tax Progressivities for U.S. States," Working Papers in Economics 08/17, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.