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The Long-run Impact of Different Exchange Rates on the Projected Agricultural Income of an Export Dependent Region of the UK

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Author Info

  • Joan Moss

    (Queen's University Belfast)

  • Seamus McErlean

    (Queen's University Belfast)

  • Ziping Wu

    (Queen's University Belfast)

  • Andrew Doherty

    (LMC, Northern Ireland)

  • Jos IJpelaar

    (University of Reading)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effects of different exchange rate scenarios on projections for agricultural incomes and prices in a small highly export dependent region, NI. The modelling system used in the analysis is designed to capture the complexities of the relationship between exchange rates and agricultural prices and incomes. The system models not only the main agricultural sectors in NI but also the demand for and supply of agricultural commodities in the EU and beyond. This is important, given that NI is a price taker and the EU is the main export destination for its agricultural production. The analysis serves to underline the importance of exchange rates for the NI agricultural economy. When the euro is weak against sterling then agricultural sector incomes are substantially lower than when the euro is strong against sterling. Approximately, a one per cent weakening/strengthening of the euro against sterling is projected to reduce/increase aggregate net receipts in the dairy, beef and sheep sectors by one per cent. This means that exchange rate movements, which are outside the control of the agricultural community, have a dramatic affect on agricultural incomes in NI. This conclusion should be considered against the backdrop of a 28% drop (approx.) in the value of the euro against the pound that has occurred since 1995. The impact of exchange rate movements on producer prices appears to be less pronounced.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/othr/papers/0409/0409003.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Others with number 0409003.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 07 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0409003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 19
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Gross, Dominique M. & Schmitt, Nicolas, 2000. "Exchange rate pass-through and dynamic oligopoly: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 89-112, October.
  2. Sadorsky, Perry, 2000. "The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-266, April.
  3. Alper Guzel, H. & Kulshreshtha, Surendra N., 1995. "Effects of real exchange rate changes on Canadian agriculture: A general equilibrium evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 639-657, December.
  4. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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