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Carbon Dynamics and Land-use Choices: Building a Regional-scale Multidisciplinary Model

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Author Info

  • Suzi Kerr

    (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research Trust)

  • Shuguang Liu

    (U.S.G.S/Eros Data Center)

  • Alexander Pfaff

    (Columbia University)

  • Flint Hughes

    (U.S.D.A Forest Service)

Abstract

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over fifty years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/othr/papers/0309/0309005.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Others with number 0309005.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 03 Sep 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0309005

Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on PC; to print on HP; pages: 30 ; figures: included/request from author/draw your own
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: carbon; sequestration; climate change; land use; modelling;

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References

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  1. Pfaff, Alexander S. P., 1999. "What Drives Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?: Evidence from Satellite and Socioeconomic Data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 26-43, January.
  2. Lakshminarayan, P. G. & Gassman, Philip W. & Bouzaher, Aziz & Izaurralde, R. Cesar, 1996. "Metamodeling Approach to Evaluate Agricultural Policy Impact on Soil Degradation in Western Canada (A)," Staff General Research Papers 1091, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-52, June.
  4. Robert N. Stavins, 1999. "The Costs of Carbon Sequestration: A Revealed-Preference Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 994-1009, September.
  5. Kerr, Suzi & Newell, Richard, 2001. "Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown," Discussion Papers dp-01-14, Resources For the Future.
  6. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  7. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
  8. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Holloway, Garth J. & Lacombe, Donald J. & LeSage, James P., 2006. "Spatial Econometric Issues for Bio-Economic and Land-Use Modeling," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25525, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Edwin van der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2007. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: An Overview," Kiel Working Papers 1323, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
  4. Suzi Kerr & Joanna Hendy & Shuguang Liu & Alexander S.P. Pfaff, 2004. "Tropical Forest Protection, Uncertainty, and the Environmental Integrity of Carbon Mitigation Policies," Others 0411001, EconWPA.
  5. Suzi Kerr, 2003. "Indigenous Forests and Forest Sink Policy in New Zealand," Working Papers 03_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  6. Michelle Poland & David C Maré, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Urban/Regional 0509016, EconWPA.
  7. David C. Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," Working Papers 05_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  8. Upadhyay, T.P. & Solberg, Birger & Sankhayan, Prem L., 2006. "Use of models to analyse land-use changes, forest/soil degradation and carbon sequestration with special reference to Himalayan region: A review and analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 349-371, December.
  9. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.
  10. Lehtonen, Heikki & Peltola, Jukka & Sinkkonen, Marko, 2006. "Co-effects of climate policy and agricultural policy on regional agricultural viability in Finland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(2-3), pages 472-493, June.

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