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Recent Increases in Prices of Oil Products and their Possible Effects on the 2001-2002 Disinflation Program in Turkey (in Turkish)

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Author Info

  • Aykut Kibritcioglu

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

Following the financial crises in November 2000 and February 2001, the Turkish government canceled the 2000-2002 disinflation and economic restructuring program on February 22, 2001, and introduced a new macroeconomic-policy program on April 14, 2001. According to this new program, the annual WPI inflation is targeted as 57.6 percent for 2001. In this paper, the author discusses both (1) the degree of necessity of increases in oil-product prices after February 22, 2001, and (2) the implications of their possible inflationary effects for the targets of 2001-2002 program. He concludes that oil-product price increases can economically be justified by sharp rises in nominal exchange rates and moderate increases in world crude-oil prices. However, the accumulating inflationary pressures that stem from oil-price and exchange-rate increases may cause a remarkable deviation from the targeted inflation rate as end of December 2001. ***** TURKCE OZET: 'Turkiye'de Akaryakit Fiyat Artislari ve 2001-2002 Enflasyonla Mucadele Programi Uzerindeki Olasi Etkileri'. 2000 yýlýnda dünya ham petrol fiyatlarý 21 $/varil ile 35 $/varil arasýnda dalgalanýr, TL/Dolar kuru ise % 24.4 kadar yükselirken akaryakýt ürünlerinin fiyatlarýna yýl boyunca ortalama olarak sadece % 8.0 kadar zam yapýlmýþtýr. 57. TC Hükümetinin 2000-2002 enflasyonla mücadele programý ilk yýlda enflasyonu % 60’lardan % 30’lara dek düþürmesine raðmen, Kasým 2000 ve Þubat 2001 sonlarýnda patlak veren iki finansal kriz sonrasýnda kurlar dalgalanmaya býrakýlarak 2001-2002 yýllarý için yeni bir programýn hazýrlýklarýna giriþilmiþtir. Öte yandan, 2001’in ilk üç ayýndaki petrol fiyatý artýþlarý ayný yýlýn Þubat ve Mart ayý sonlarýndaki ciddi kur sýçramalarý ile birleþince, akaryakýt ürünlerinin fiyatlarýna özellikle Mart ve Nisan aylarýnda peþpeþe zamlar yapýlmýþtýr. Bu kýsa makalede; 2001 yýlýnýn ilk 3.5 ayýnda gerçekleþen toplam % 57.6’lýk akaryakýt zammýnýn ne ölçüde gerekli olduðu ve söz konusu artýþlarýn, Hükümetin 2001 yýlý için koyduðu % 57.6’lýk toptan eþya fiyatlarý endeksi (TEFE) artýþ hedefini ne derecede etkileyeceði sorularýna yanýt aranmaktadýr. Çalýþmanýn bulgularýna göre, yapýlan zamlar maliyet artýþlarý bakýmýndan büyük ölçüde haklýdýr. Ancak, akaryakýt zamlarýnýn olasý enflasyonist etkileri, Hükümetin 2001 yýlý TEFE artýþ hedefine ulaþýlmasýný olanaksýz kýlmasa da oldukça güçleþtirmektedir. Söz konusu hedefin tutturulabilmesi için, Hükümetin bundan böyle çok zorunlu olmadýkça akaryakýt ürünlerine zam yapmamasý gerektiði ve bir an önce kredibilitesi-güvenilirliði yüksek ve gerekli yasal reformlarla desteklenen yeni dezenflasyon programýný bir bütün olarak ve kararlýlýkla hayata geçirmesinin önemi ortaya çýkmaktadýr. [Yayinlandigi yer: Iktisat, Isletme ve Finans Dergisi, 16 (No. 184): 31- 41, Temmuz 2001]

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0506014.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0506014

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 14
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: oil prices; gasoline prices; high inflation; disinflation; Turkey;

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  1. Hakan Berument, 2002. "Inflationary Effect of Crude Oil Prices in Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 0203, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  2. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2000. "Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation," IMF Working Papers 00/4, International Monetary Fund.
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