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Estimating the Size and Growth of Unrecorded Economic Activity in Transition Countries: A Re-evaluation of Electric Consumption Method Estimates and their Implications

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Author Info

  • Edgar L. Feige

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Ivica Urban

    (Institute of Public Finance)

Abstract

It is widely acknowledged that underground (unrecorded) economic activities play a major role in transition economies. Evaluations of the success and failure of the transition experience should therefore be based on total economic activity [TEA], namely, the sum of recorded and unrecorded economic activity. Substantive conclusions concerning the effects of unrecorded activities on the transition process as well as investigations of the causes and consequences of unrecorded activities have to date, relied extensively on estimates of unrecorded income based on variants of the electric consumption method [ECM] during the first half of the transition process. We first attempt to replicate these estimates employing improved data series. We then go on to extend and update alternative versions of the ECM estimates of unrecorded income for twenty five transition countries for the period 1989-2001. These new estimates enable us to examine the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifying assumptions, particularly, initial conditions. We find that our updated ECM estimates of the size of the unrecorded sector are not only highly sensitive to initial conditions, but they produce negative estimates of unrecorded income for many transition countries. Our findings are also compared to the new national accounting procedures that attempt to estimate exhaustive measures of the “non-observed economy”. Our disturbing results call into question many of the substantive conclusions reached by other scholars who relied on earlier ECM estimates to draw inferences about the transition process as well as the causes and consequences of underground economies in transition. In short, while we conclude that ECM estimates of the size of the unrecorded economy are unreliable, it is still possible to use the growth rate of the unrecorded sector to make important inferences about the transition process by examining the dynamic relationship between recorded and unrecorded sectors. The extension of our data base to cover the entire transition period will hopefully result in new investigations employing panel data rather than the more traditional method of applying simple cross country test procedures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0311010.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 25 Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0311010

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on WINXP; to print on Postscript; pages: 37; figures: Included in Paper. 37 pages, pdf. postscript
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: underground; unreported; unrecorded; unobserved; hidden; informal; shadow economy; transition economies; electric consumption method;

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References

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  1. Edgar L. Feige, 1986. "A Re-Examination of the "Underground Economy" in the United States: A Comment on Tanzi," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 33(4), pages 768-781, December.
  2. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. A. Еslund, 2001. "The Myth of Output Collapse After Communism," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
  4. Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Feige,Edgar L. (ed.), 1989. "The Underground Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521262309.
  6. Michael Alexeev & William Pyle, 2001. "A Note on Measuring the Unofficial Economy in the Former Soviet Republics," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 436, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Manik L. Shrestha & Adriaan M. Bloem, 2000. "Comprehensive Measures of GDP and the Unrecorded Economy," IMF Working Papers 00/204, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Keen & Alexander Klemm & Anna Ivanova, 2005. "The Russian Flat Tax Reform," IMF Working Papers 05/16, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ercolani, Marco G., 2007. "Hidden Economies and the Socially Optimal Fiscal-Tax to Liquidity-Tax Ratio," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 1(6), pages 1-32.
  3. Maxim Bouev, 2004. "Diverging Paths: Transition in the Presence of the Informal Sector," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-689, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Edgar L. Feige & Ivica Urban, 2008. "Measuring Underground (Unobserved, Non-Observed, Unrecorded) Economies in Transition Countries: Can We Trust GDP?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp913, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  5. Maxim Bouev, 2005. "State Regulations, Job Search and Wage Bargaining: A Study in the Economics of the Informal Sector," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp764, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2010. "Challenging the popular wisdom. New estimates of the unobserved economy," Working Papers 184, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
  7. Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2009. "Income Tax Flattening: Does It Help to Reduce the Shadow Economy?," IZA Discussion Papers 4223, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Byung-Yeon Kim, 2011. "The Unofficial Economy in Russia," KIER Working Papers 797, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

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