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Alternative Public Spending Rules and Output Volatility

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Author Info
Jean-Paul Lam (Bank of Canada)
William Scarth (McMaster University)

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Abstract

One of the central lessons learned from the Great Depression was that adjusting government spending each year to balance the budget increases the volatility of output. We compare this policy with one that involves running temporary deficits and surpluses and an average budget balance of zero. Our analysis allows monetary policy to adjust to a change in fiscal regime, and the specifications for aggregate demand and supply are consistent with the "new neoclassical synthesis." Our results give only limited support to the conventional wisdom on fiscal rules and stability of output.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/mac/papers/0211/0211005.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0211005.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 12 Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0211005

Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on UNIX Blade 100; to print on all; pages: 22; figures: none
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Related research
Keywords: Built-in stability; expectational IS; foward-looking Phillips curve.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1984. "A reexamination of the theory of automatic stabilizers," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 147-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 2000. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 35-67. [Downloadable!]
  7. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alberto Alesina & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 5614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Smyth, David J, 1974. "Built-in Flexibility of Taxation and Stability in a Simple Dynamic IS-LM Model," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 29(1), pages 111-14.
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  12. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jonathan Millar, 1997. "The Effects of Budget Rules on Fiscal Performance and Macroeconomic Stabilization," Working Papers 97-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Helliwell, John & Gorbet, Fred, 1971. "Assessing the Dynamic Efficiency of Automatic Stabilizers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 826-45, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. McCallum, Bennett T, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 716-46, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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