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Can Monetary Policy Affect The Real Economy?

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  • Philip Arestis

    (Levy Economics Institute of Bard College)

  • Malcolm Sawyer

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Current monetary policy involves the manipulation of the Central Bank interest rate (the repo rate), with the specific objective of achieving the goal(s) of monetary policy. The latter is normally the inflation rate, although in a number of instances this may include the level of economic activity (the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is a good example of this category). This raises two issues. The first is the theoretical underpinnings of this mode of monetary policy. The second is the channels of monetary policy or, more concretely, the channels through which changes in the rate of interest may affect the ultimate goal(s) of policy. Both aspects are investigated in this paper. Furthermore, we suggest that it is imperative to consider the empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy. We summarise results drawn from the eurozone, the U.S. and the UK and suggest that these empirical results point to a relatively weak effect of interest rate changes on inflation. We also suggest, on the basis of the evidence adduced in the paper, that monetary policy can have long-run effects on real magnitudes. This particular result does not fit comfortably with the theoretical basis of current thinking on monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "Can Monetary Policy Affect The Real Economy?," Macroeconomics 0209012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0209012
    Note: Type of Document - Microsoft Word; prepared on IBM-PC; to print on Postcript; pages: 21; figures: included
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2004. "On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(4), pages 441-463.
    2. Mark Setterfield, 2007. "Is There a Stabilizing Role for Fiscal Policy in the New Consensus?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 405-418.
    3. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2003. "Does the stock of money have any causal significance?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(225), pages 113-136.
    4. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2019. "European integration and the ‘euro project’," Chapters, in: Jonathan Michie (ed.), The Handbook of Globalisation, Third Edition, chapter 15, pages 262-271, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Assessing the ECB's Performance since the Global Slowdown: A Structural Policy Bias Coming Home to Roost?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_409, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Michael D. Evans & Trevor Chamberlain, 2014. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Changes on the U.S. Economy (1982-2012)," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 4, pages 1-14, May.
    7. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2006. "The Case for Fiscal Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Philip Arestis & Jesus Ferreiro & Felipe Serrano (ed.), Financial Developments in National and International Markets, chapter 6, pages 103-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Josh Ryan-Collins & Frank van Lerven, 2018. "Bringing the helicopter to ground: a historical review of fiscal-monetary coordination to support economic growth in the 20th century," Working Papers PKWP1810, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    9. Lian An & Xiaomei Ren & Huimin Li & Jing Xu, 2017. "Exchange Rate And Us Macroeconomy: Evidence From The Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 483-508, June.
    10. Geoffrey Goodell & Hazem Danny Al-Nakib & Paolo Tasca, 2020. "Digital Currency and Economic Crises: Helping States Respond," Papers 2006.03023, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    11. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, "undated". "Reforming the Euro's Institutional Framework," Economics Policy Note Archive 03-2, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2010. "What Monetary Policy after the Crisis?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 499-515.
    13. Giuseppe Fontana & Bill Gerrard, 2006. "The future of Post Keynesian economics," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(236), pages 49-80.
    14. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. ""Good governance" in monetary policy and the negative real effects of inflation targeting in developing economies," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td277, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    15. Norberto Montani Martins & Camila Cabral Pires-Alves & André de Melo Modenesi & Karla Vanessa Batista da Silva Leite, 2017. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy: Microeconomic aspects of macroeconomic issues," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 300-326, July.
    16. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    17. Obradović Jelena & Đorđević Marina, 2020. "Monetary Policy Transmission on Real Trends in Serbia – VAR Analysis," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, March.
    18. Gradimir Kozetinac, 2011. "Inflation Targeting, Full Employment and Long-run Economic Growth: The Case of Serbia," Book Chapters, in: Stefan Bogdan Salej & Dejan Eric & Srdjan Redzepagic & Ivan Stosic (ed.), Contemporary Issues in the Integration Processes of Western Balkan Countries in the European Union, chapter 20, pages 322-336, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    19. Allan Silveira Dos Santos & Maria Helena Ambrosio Dias & Joilson Dias & Érica Oliveira Gonzales, 2014. "Monetary Programming, Turnover Of The Directors Of Central Bank And Interest Rate Determination: Reaction Function Applications For Brazil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 052, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Greg Hannsgen, 2005. "Minsky's acceleration channel and the role of money," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 471-489.
    21. Gilberto Libânio, 2010. "A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 30(1), pages 73-88.
    22. Apostu Simona-Andreea, 2018. "Statistical and econometric analysis of the correlation between financial transactions and real economy," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 70-79, May.
    23. Tomáš Heryán & Iveta Palečková & Nemanja Radić, 2015. "Comparison of monetary policy effects on lending channel in EMU and non-EMU countries: Evidence from period 1999-2012," Working Papers 0003, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    24. Mohd Zaini Abd Karim & Amy Azhar Mohd Harif & Azira Adziz, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Bank Lending in Malaysia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 303-326.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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