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Generalizing Gibrat. Reasonable Multiplicative Models of Firm Dynamics

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Author Info
Matteo Richiardi (LABORatorio Riccardo Revelli Centre for Employment Studies)

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Abstract

Multiplicative models of firm dynamics ‘à la Gibrat’ have become a standard reference in industrial organization. However, some unpleasant properties of their implied dynamics – namely, their explosive or implosive behaviour (firm size and number collapsing to zero or increasing indefinitely) - have been given only very little attention. In this paper I investigate which modifications to the standard multiplicative model of firm dynamics lead to stable (and reasonable) distributions of firm size. An agent-based simulation study is performed, and a methodology is proposed to recover the (aggregate) laws governing the system by estimating the reduced form, i.e. the local data generating process, on the artificial data resulting from a number of artificial experiments. I show that in order to obtain stable systems for a wide range of average growth rate, either heteroskedasticity in the growth rates has to be assumed, or entry and exit mechanisms included. While other particular, ad hoc, entry and exit mechanisms could be imagined, I show that combining the broad class of threshold entry mechanisms and the more restricted class of threshold exit mechanisms with overcapacity penalizing all firms (where entry and exit are determined with reference to an exogenously defined total capacity of the market), lead to stable distributions even in the case of growth rate homoskedasticity, given a non-zero minimum threshold for firm size.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0304004.

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Date of creation: 07 Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0304004

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Related research
Keywords: Firm growth Gibrat Entry Exit Simulation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. McCloughan, Patrick, 1995. "Simulation of Concentration Development from Modified Gibrat Growth-Entry-Exit Processes," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 405-33, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Geroski, Paul A & Samiei, Hossein & Urga, Giovanni, 1997. "Are Differences in Firm Size Transitory or Permanent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. José Fariñas & Lourdes Moreno, 2000. "Firms' Growth, Size and Age: A Nonparametric Approach," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 249-265, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter E. Hart, Nicholas Oulton, 1999. "Gibrat, Galton and Job Generation," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 149-164, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Harhoff, Dietmar & Stahl, Konrad & Woywode, Michael, 1998. "Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms--Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 453-88, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kumar, M S, 1985. "Growth, Acquisition Activity and Firm Size: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 327-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Variyam, Jayachandran N. & Kraybill, David S., 1992. "Empirical evidence on determinants of firm growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 31-36, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2001. "The Law of Proportionate Effect and OECD Bank Sectors," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 539-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John Sutton, 1997. "Gibrat's Legacy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 40-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cordoba, Juan, 2001. "Balanced City Growth and Zipf's Law," Working Papers 2002-03, Rice University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 567-81, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Singh, Ajit & Whittington, Geoffrey, 1975. "The Size and Growth of Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 15-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Emeterio Navarro & Ruben Cantero & Joao Rodrigues & Frank Schweitzer, 2007. "Investments in Random Environments," Quantitative Finance Papers 0709.3630, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
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