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Balance Sheet Effects And The Country Risk Premium: An Empirical Investigation

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Author Info
Alicia Garcia Herrero (Banco de España)
Juan Carlos Berganza (Banco de España)
Roberto Chang (Rutgers University)

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Abstract

This paper investigates empirically whether there is a negative relationship between a country’s risk premium and the balance sheet effect, as implied by recent theories emphasizing financial imperfections. We find evidence that balance sheet effects, stemming from the increase in the external debt service after an unexpected real depreciation, significantly raise the risk premium. We also show that the increase in the risk premium is not due to the debt service as such. While the result holds for the whole sample, we show that it is mainly driven by those countries with the largest financial imperfections, as argued by imperfect capital market theories. Particularly large real depreciations also seem to be disproportionately important, meaning that the balance sheet effects may be strongest at times of economic crisis, when large devaluations occur.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0403005.

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Date of creation: 05 Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0403005

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Related research
Keywords: balance sheet effects; country risk premium; sovereign spreads;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2001. "A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.14, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hart, Oliver & Moore, John, 1994. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 841-79, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2002. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: much ado about nothing?," Working Papers 02-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," RES Working Papers 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  9. Calvo, Guillermo A, 2001. "Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 312-34, May.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2001. "Capital markets and the exchange rate with special reference to the dollarization debate in Latin America," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 312-338.
  11. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Almira Buzaushina & Michael Brei, 2009. "Matching International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse2_2009, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries," Working papers 2006-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets," Working papers 2006-27, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Financial Frictions and Real Devaluations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 318, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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