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Value Investing in Emerging Markets: Risks and Benefits

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  • Vladislav Kargin

    (Cornerstone Research)

Abstract

This paper identifies a subset of emerging markets that have higher than average expected returns and studies risk properties of this subset by investment simulations. It is found that: (1) the portfolio of "value" emerging markets generates superior returns, and (2) statistical measures of its risk are close to the corresponding measures for the portfolio of all emerging markets. The statistical significance of these results were checked by a bootstrap procedure. The results imply that the optimal share of emerging markets increases from 0% for an equally weighted portfolio to about 25% for the portfolio of undervalued emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladislav Kargin, 2003. "Value Investing in Emerging Markets: Risks and Benefits," International Finance 0309005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0309005
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC ; pages: 11; figures: included. Published in Emerging Markets Review
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-191, January.
    2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    3. Goetzmann, William N. & Jorion, Philippe, 1999. "Re-Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 1-32, March.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    5. Tom Arnold & Philip Hersch & J. Harold Mulherin & Jeffry Netter, 1999. "Merging Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1083-1107, June.
    6. Masters, Timothy, 1998. "Just what are we optimizing, anyway?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 277-290, June.
    7. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Cited by:

    1. David A. Burnie, 2021. "Democracy, dictatorship, and economic freedom signals in stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 375-390, January.
    2. Hamza, Olfa & Kortas, Mohamed & L'Her, Jean-Francois & Roberge, Mathieu, 2006. "International equity portfolios: Selecting the right benchmark for emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 111-128, June.
    3. Gupta, R. & Donleavy, G.D., 2009. "Benefits of diversifying investments into emerging markets with time-varying correlations: An Australian perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 160-177, April.
    4. Tomasz MIZIOLEK & Adam ZAREMBA, 2017. "Fundamental Indexation in European Emerging Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 23-37, March.
    5. Kortas, Mohamed & L'Her, Jean-Francois & Roberge, Mathieu, 2005. "Country selection of emerging equity markets: benefits from country attribute diversification," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Amit Hedau, 2020. "Value Investing: Evidence From Listed Construction And Infrastucture Sector Companies In India," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(4), pages 104-114, december.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; investment simulations; bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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