Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence
AbstractFildes, Hibon, Makridakis and Meade (1998), which will be referred to as FHMM, extends two important published papers. The idea of taking findings from each study and testing them against the data used in the other study is a good one. Such replications and extensions are important in the effort to develop useful generalizations and publication of this paper reflects the commitment of International Journal of Forecasting to replication research. In addition the study examines procedures for estimating smoothing parameters, and it evaluates the need for using multiple starting points when evaluating forecasting methods. On the negative side, FHMM does not fully describe the conditions under which one might expect a given extrapolation method to provide more accurate forecasts than competing methods. This limits the generalizability of its findings. In addition, I believe that the FHMM generalizations are even more limited than they might appear at first glance.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0502019.
Length: 3 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 3
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://18.104.22.168
forecasting; univariate forecasting methods;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- A - General Economics and Teaching
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.