Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners
AbstractThere exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this issue of the Journal of Forecasting compares the ability to forecast the future of over twenty univariate forecasting methods. Forecasting researchers in various academic disciplines as well as practitioners in private or public organizations are commonly faced with the problem of evaluating forecasting methods and ultimately selecting one. Thereafter, most become advocates of the method they have selected. On what basis are choices made? More specifically, what are the criteria used or the dimensions judged important? If a survey was taken among academicians and practitioners, would the same criteria arise? Would they be weighted equally? Before you continue reading this note, write on a piece of paper your criteria in order of importance and answer the last two questions. This will enable you to see whether or not you share the same values as your colleagues and test the accuracy of your perception.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0412008.
Length: 3 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
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extrapolation; forecasting; extrapolative forecasting method;
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- NEP-ALL-2004-12-12 (All new papers)
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- Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992.
"Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations,"
INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
- Fred Collopy & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," General Economics and Teaching 0412004, EconWPA.
- JS Armstrong & Robert Fildes, 2004. "Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods," General Economics and Teaching 0412002, EconWPA.
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