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Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?

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Author Info

  • JS Armstrong

    (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than any previous competition, improves error analyses. and includes commercial forecasting programs as competitors. To judge where to go from here, I step back to look at the M-Competitions as a whole. I discuss the advantages of the M- Competitions in hopes that they will be retained, describe how to gain additional benefit from future competitions, and finally, describe a low-cost approach to competitions.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/get/papers/0412/0412001.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0412001.

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Length: 4 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 4
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: forecasting; forecasting competitions;

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References

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  1. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, EconWPA.
  2. Fred Collopy & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," General Economics and Teaching 0412004, EconWPA.
  3. Scott Armstrong, J., 1988. "Research needs in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 449-465.
  4. JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie & Andrew G. Parsons, 2004. "Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit," General Economics and Teaching 0412013, EconWPA.
  5. Hubbard, Raymond & Vetter, Daniel E., 1996. "An empirical comparison of published replication research in accounting, economics, finance, management, and marketing," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 153-164, February.
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Cited by:
  1. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Haiyan Song & Doris C Wu, 2008. "The tourism forecasting competition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Oct 2009.

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