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Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?

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Author Info
JS Armstrong (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than any previous competition, improves error analyses. and includes commercial forecasting programs as competitors. To judge where to go from here, I step back to look at the M-Competitions as a whole. I discuss the advantages of the M- Competitions in hopes that they will be retained, describe how to gain additional benefit from future competitions, and finally, describe a low-cost approach to competitions.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/get/papers/0412/0412001.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0412001.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 4 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 4
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: forecasting; forecasting competitions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
A - General Economics and Teaching

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hubbard, Raymond & Vetter, Daniel E., 1996. "An empirical comparison of published replication research in accounting, economics, finance, management, and marketing," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 153-164, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fred Collopy & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," General Economics and Teaching 0412004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie & Andrew G. Parsons, 2004. "Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit," General Economics and Teaching 0412013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Scott Armstrong, J., 1988. "Research needs in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 449-465. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Haiyan Song & Doris C Wu, 2008. "The tourism forecasting competition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
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