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Autocorrelation as a Source of Truncated Levy Flights in Foreign Exchange Rates

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  • Sergio Da Silva

    (Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil)

Abstract

We suggest that the ultraslow speed of convergence associated with truncated Lévy flights (Phys. Rev. Lett. 73 (1994) 2946) may well be explained by autocorrelations in data. We show how a particular type of autocorrelation generates power laws consistent with a truncated Lévy flight. Stock exchanges have been suggested to be modeled by a truncated Lévy flight (Nature 376 (1995) 46; Physica A 297 (2001) 509; Econom. Bull. 7 (2002) 1). Here foreign exchange rate data are taken instead. Scaling power laws in the “probability of return to the origin” are shown to emerge for most currencies. A novel approach to measure how distant a process is from a Gaussian regime is presented.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0405018.

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Date of creation: 14 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0405018

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  1. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sergio Da Silva & Raul Matsushita & Iram Gleria, 2002. "Scaling power laws in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12.
  3. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
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Cited by:
  1. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "International Finance, Levy Distributions, and the Econophysics of Exchange Rates," International Finance 0405018, EconWPA.
  2. Figueiredo, Annibal & Gleria, Iram & Matsushita, Raul & Da Silva, Sergio, 2004. "Lévy flights, autocorrelation, and slow convergence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 369-383.
  3. da Silva, Roberto & Zembrzuski, Marcelo & Correa, Fabio C. & Lamb, Luis C., 2010. "Stock markets and criticality in the current economic crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5460-5467.
  4. Liu, Lei & Hu, Fei, 2013. "Cascade-like and scaling behavior of wind velocity increments in the atmospheric surface layer," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5808-5816.
  5. Gleria, Iram & Figueiredo, Annibal & Matsushita, Raul & Rathie, Pushpa & Da Silva, Sergio, 2004. "Exponentially damped Lévy flights, multiscaling and slow convergence in stockmarkets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 342(1), pages 200-206.
  6. Annibal Figueiredo & Iram Gleria & Raul Matsushita & Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "On the origins of truncated Lévy flights," Finance 0404013, EconWPA.
  7. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "Exponentially Damped Levy Flights, Multiscaling, and Exchange Rates," Finance 0405027, EconWPA.
  8. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "Exponentially Damped Levy Flights," Finance 0406002, EconWPA.
  9. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "Autocorrelation and the Sum of Stochastic Variables," Finance 0405020, EconWPA.

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