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The Price of Gold: A Global Required Yield Theory

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Author Info
Christophe Faugere (U at Albany)
Julian Van Erlach (Nexxus Financial Technologies)

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Abstract

We construct a gold valuation theory based on viewing gold as a global real store of wealth. We show that the real price of gold varies inversely to the stock market P/E and thus is a direct function of a global yield required to achieve a constant real after-tax return equal to long-term global real GDP per-capita growth. We introduce a new exchange rate parity rule based on the equalization of inverse stock market P/Es (required yields) across nations. Foreign exchange affects the price of gold to the extent that required yields and purchasing parity equalizations do not take place across nations in the short run. A quarterly valuation model is constructed using concurrent economic data that is within 12% mean percentage tracking error from real U.S. gold prices from 1979- 2002. Several major world events have had a large but fleeting impact on gold prices.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0403003.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 22 Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0403003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 29
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Gold Price; Stock Market; Required yield; Forward Earnings yield; Foreign Exchange; P/E; Price-Earnings Ratio.;

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G - Financial Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pritchett, Lant, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003. "A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return," Finance 0311005, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Dipak Ghosh & Eric J. Levin & Peter Macmillan & Robert E. Wright, 2000. "Gold as an Inflation Hedge?," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 0021, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
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  4. Barsky, Robert B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 528-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp198, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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