Modelling Long Memory and Risk Premia in Latin American Sovereign Bond Markets
AbstractA family of credit risk models is proposed to capture three salient features of Latin American (LA) Sovereign Bond Markets: individual Long Range Dependence in volatility---Long Memory (LM)---, high fractional comovement and time varying risk premia. Evidence in favor of LM is uncovered and the extent of Default Risk Contagion in these markets during the nineties is measured. Among others, the results suggest that the response of bond spread changes to volatility shocks is not statistically different, indicating that a common source may be driving the market. Also, the extent of fractional comovement is high and the magnitude of the risk premia for investing in these bond markets is substantial. Our suggested family of bivariate Fractional Integrated GARCH-in-Mean models is preferred to Brunetti (2000) and Teyssière (1998) processes as indicated by Schwartz Information Criteria and Likelihood Ratio tests.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0410004.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 05 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 28. 28 pages, PDF
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://220.127.116.11
Financial Stability; Credit Risk; Default Risk Contagion; Long Memory; Bivariate FIGARCH(1; d; 1)-in-Mean; Emerging Markets.;
Other versions of this item:
- Alfonso Mendoza, 2004. "Modelling long memory and risk premia in Latin American sovereign bond markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 65, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 13 Oct 2004.
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996.
"Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Bollerslev-Mikkelson(1996) FIEGARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00173, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008.
"The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil,"
14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brunetti, Celso & Gilbert, Christopher L., 2000.
"Bivariate FIGARCH and fractional cointegration,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 509-530, December.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
- Paolo Mauro & Yishay Yafeh & Nathan Sussman, 2001.
"Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2001fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Yishay Yafeh & Paolo Mauro & Nathan Sussman, 2000. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now," IMF Working Papers 00/190, International Monetary Fund.
- Paolo Mauro, 2000. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-FE-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
- Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
- Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank.
- Lobato, Ignacio N & Robinson, Peter M, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 475-95, July.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2000.
"Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
7885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," Journal of LACEA Economia, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter Benczur, 2001. "Learning, noise traders, the volatility and the level of bond spreads," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0114, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.