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Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts

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Author Info
Marco Vega (LSE & Central Bank of Peru)

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Abstract

This paper models an inflation forecast density framework that closely resembles actual policy makers behaviour regarding the determination of the modal point, the uncertainty and asymmetry in the inflation forecasts. The framework combines policy makers prior information about these parameters with a standard parametric density estimation technique using Bayesian theory. The combination crucially hinges on an information-theoretic utility function gains of the policy maker from performing the forecast exercise.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0403005.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 13 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0403005

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 32
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Inflation Targeting; Bayesian Methods;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia, 2002. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Results in Twenty Inflation-Targeting Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 166, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Tarkka , Juha & Mayes, David, 1999. "The Value of Publishing Official Central Bank Forecasts," Research Discussion Papers 22/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2002. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 181, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2002-2), pages 1-62. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Central Bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting fnflation risks," Working Paper Series 226, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2001. "Monetary transmission lags and the formulation of the policy decision on interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 165-186. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Manuel Julio, 2006. "Implementación, uso e interpretación del Fan Chart," Revista Colombiana de Estadística, REVISTA COLOMBIANA DE ESTADISTICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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