The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence
AbstractThis paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems affecting standard structural approach. In particular the paper investigates whether permanent employment shift across Italian industrial sector [measured by the Neumann and Topel (1991)'s employment-based dispersion index] has an effect on unemployment. Among the findings of this paper we emphasize that sectoral employment shifts affect unemployment both in the long- and in the short-term. Moreover, we find that the effect of sectoral reallocation on the unemployment rate occurs only after some delay.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0207001.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 40; figures: included. 27 pages of body text, PDF, figures included within the text
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Web page: http://188.8.131.52
Macroeconometrics; Employment Shifts; Italian Economy; NAIRU; VECM;
Other versions of this item:
- Vincenzo Di Maro, 2002. "The Estimation Of The Nairu And The Effect Of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence," Working Papers 7_2002, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
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