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Canaries and Vultures: A Quantitative History of Monetary Mismanagement in Brazil

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Author Info
Pedro H. Albuquerque (Texas A&M International University)
Solange Gouvea (Central Bank of Brazil)

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Abstract

During the last two decades of the twentieth century, Brazil went through a sequence of failed stabilization plans that tried to cope with an enduring hyperinflation. This paper uses a money demand model to evaluate monetary policies during those episodes. The consistency between the money supply and the expected conditional money demand growth rates is considered for each plan. It is shown that the unsuccessful programs were marked by excessive liquidity. The results not only suggest that the mismanagement of the monetary aggregates led to the failure of the plans, but also that the excessive liquidity could have been predicted.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0511027.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0511027

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 34
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Keywords: Money Demand Money Supply Monetary Policy Inflation Stabilization Brazil

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Garcia, Marcio G. P., 1996. "Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation: The case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-159, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  6. Mark P. Taylor & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Testing for Credibility Effects," IMF Working Papers 91/110, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Cardoso, Eliana A & Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Brazil's Tropical Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 288-92, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  9. Amann, Edmund & Baer, Werner, 2003. "Anchors Away: The Cost and Benefits of Brazil's Devaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1033-1046, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  11. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 1, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Maria Luiza Falcão Silva & Joaquim Pionto de Andrade, 1996. "Brazil's new currency: origin, development and perspectives of the Real," Revista Brasileira de Economia, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 50(4), April.
  15. Merette, Marcel, 2000. "Post-Mortem of a Stabilization Plan: The Collor Plan in Brazil," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 417-452, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Pereira, Luiz Bresser, 1987. "Inertial inflation and the Cruzado plan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1035-1044, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2005. "BAD Taxation: Disintermediation and Illiquidity in a Bank Account Debits Tax Model," Public Economics 0511019, EconWPA, revised 27 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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