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Developing Confidence Intervals for Office Market Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Richard Green
  • Walter Barnes
  • Stephen Malpezzi

Abstract

This study focuses on the precision of models that forecast office construction and absorption. The article is novel because for the first time it applies Feldstein's (1971) technique for developing forecast standard errors in the presence of stochastic exogenous variables. The purpose of the article is not to find behavioral relationships but rather to evaluate forecasts. We find that in the case of many office markets, standard errors of long-term forecasts for absorption and completions are quite large, and therefore the forecasts themselves should not be used as a reliable basis for underwriting. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research in its series Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers with number 94-09.

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Date of creation: May 1994
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Handle: RePEc:wop:wisule:94-09

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Web page: http://wiscinfo.doit.wisc.edu/realestate/paper.htm
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  1. Why most economic forecasts are useless
    by Richard K. Green in Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog on 2010-05-30 15:43:00

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