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How Long Do African Americans Stay in High-Poverty Neighborhoods? An Analysis of Spells

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L. Quillian
Abstract

Discussions of high-poverty neighborhoods often assume that their residents are a distinct population trapped in poor neighborhoods for long durations. This paper examines this claim by calculating the first estimates of duration of residence in high-poverty neighborhoods for the African-American population. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics matched to census tract data and a model of movement among neighborhood types adopted from Bane and Ellwood (1983, 1986) and McGinnis (1968), I derive measures of the duration of stays in high-poverty neighborhoods. A large share of the black population will experience a short spell of residence in an extremely poor neighborhood at some time over a 10-year period. Many of the residents of nonpoor and poor neighborhoods at a point in time, however, will be there for long spells. Among poor African Americans, reentry to high-poverty neighborhoods following an exit is common. Patterns of stays in high-poverty neighborhoods are more complex and heterogeneous than usually supposed.

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Paper provided by University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty in its series Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers with number 1203-00.

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  1. C-B. An & R. H. Haveman & B. L. Wolfe, . "The "window problem" in studies of children's attainments: A methodological exploration," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 977-92, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
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  2. Gottschalk, Peter & Moffitt, Robert A, 1994. "Welfare Dependence: Concepts, Measures, and Trends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 38-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ann Huff Stevens, 1995. "Climbing Out of Poverty, Falling Back In: Measuring the Persistence of Poverty over Multiple Spells," NBER Working Papers 5390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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