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Traffic at the Edge of Chaos

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Author Info
Kai Nagel
Steen Rasmussen
Abstract

We use a very simple description of human driving behavior to simulate traffic. The regime of maximum vehicle flow in a closed system shows near-critical behavior, and as a result a sharp decrease of the predictability of travel time. Since Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMSs) tend to drive larger parts of the transportation system towards this regime of maximum flow, we argue that in consequence the traffic system as a whole will be driven closer to criticality, thus making predictions much harder. A simulation of simplified transportation network supports our argument.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Working Papers with number 94-06-032.

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Date of creation: Jun 1994
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Handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:94-06-032

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  1. Joshua M. Epstein, 2007. "Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science," Introductory Chapters, in: Generative Social Science Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling Princeton University Press. [Downloadable!]
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