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External Impacts on the Property-Liability Insurance Cycle

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Author Info

  • Grace, M. F.
  • J. L. Hotchkiss

Abstract

Traditionally, underwriting performance is considered to be a function of industry specific institutions. Using quarterly data from 1974 to 1990, we provide evidence of a long run linkage between the general economy and the underwriting performance as measured by the combined ratio. Using cointegration techniques we estimate the long run relationship between the general economy as measured by real gross domestic product, the short-term interest rate, and inflation. We then estimate the short-run linkage between the industry and the general economy using vector autoregression techniques and find that, although the property-liability industry is linked to the long run performance of the national economy, short run shocks in economic variables have little effect on the combined ratio.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Risk and Insurance Archive in its series Working Papers with number 020.

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Length:
Date of creation: Nov 1993
Date of revision: Feb 1995
Handle: RePEc:wop:riskar:020

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Related research

Keywords: Property-Liability Cycle; business cycle;

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References

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  1. Harrington, Scott E & Danzon, Patricia M, 1994. "Price Cutting in Liability Insurance Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 511-38, October.
  2. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  3. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
  4. Anne Gron, 1994. "Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 110-127, Spring.
  5. Claudia Goldin & Robert A. Margo, 1992. "Wages, Prices, and Labor Markets before the Civil War," NBER Chapters, in: Strategic Factors in Nineteenth Century American Economic History: A Volume to Honor Robert W. Fogel, pages 67-104 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Janice L. Boucher, 1991. "Stationary representations, cointegration, and rational expectations with an application to the forward foreign exchange market," Working Paper 91-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  9. Smith, Michael L, 1989. "Investment Returns and Yields to Holders of Insurance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 81-98, January.
  10. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Denis Kessler, 2005. "La fin du cycle traditionnel en assurance et réassurance de dommages ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 80(3), pages 159-170.
  2. Guo, Feng & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2013. "Identifying permanent and transitory risks in the Chinese property insurance market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 689-704.
  3. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2011. "The Role of RBC, Hurricane Exposure, Bond Portfolio Duration, and Macroeconomic and Industry-wide Factors in Property-Liability Insolvency Prediction," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-17, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  4. Jiang, Shi-jie & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2012. "Dynamics of underwriting profits: Evidence from the U.S. insurance market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15.
  5. Bin Zou & Abel Cadenillas, 2014. "Explicit Solutions of Optimal Consumption, Investment and Insurance Problem with Regime Switching," Papers 1402.3562, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2014.
  6. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Cyclicity in the French PropertyLiability Insurance Industry - New Findings over the Recent Period," Working Papers 2014-047, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "How Do the Interest Rate and the Inflation Rate Affect the Non-Life Insurance Premiums ?," Working Papers 2014-282, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  8. Jiang Cheng & Elyas Elyasiani & Jingyi (Jane) Jia, 2011. "Institutional Ownership Stability and Risk Taking: Evidence from the Life-Health Insurance Industry," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-14, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  9. Ronnie J. Phillips & David Nickerson, 2011. "Underwriting in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets: Regulation, Risk and Volatility," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-19, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  10. Feng Guo & Hung-Gay Fung & Ying Huang, 2009. "The Dynamic Impact of Macro Shocks on Insurance Premiums," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 225-244, June.
  11. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2011. "The Regulatory Effect of Risk-Based Capital in Property-Liability Insurance," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-20, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.

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