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Pricing the Risks of Default

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  • Dilip Madan
  • Haluk Unal
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    Abstract

    This paper characterizes the risk neutral jump process of default in terms of two entities, i) an instantaneous arrival rate of default and ii) a conditional density of the magnitude of the proportionate reduction in the value of creditors claims. The authors propose models for default arrival and magnitude risks as functions of evolving economic information. These two default components are then explicitly priced in the futures market with the spot price of risky debt being derived as a consequence. The resulting models for default arrival and magnitude risks are estimated on monthly data for rates on certificates of deposit offered by institutions in the Savings and Loan Industry. The data period is January 1987 to December 1991. The default arrival rate is modeled as responsive to abnormal equity returns, while default magnitude risk is modeled to be sensitive to the level of core deposits and the yield on low grade bonds. The authors' empirical results for the arrival and magnitude risk models provide strong support for the hypothesis that uninsured depositors place market discipline on the depository institutions by demanding compensation for both forms of the firm's default risks.

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    File URL: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/94/9416B.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 94-16.

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    Date of creation: Oct 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:94-16

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    1. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
    2. Avery, Robert B & Belton, Terrence M & Goldberg, Michael A, 1988. "Market Discipline in Regulating Bank Risk: New Evidence from the Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 597-610, November.
    3. Timothy H. Hannan & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1986. "Bank insolvency risk and the market for large certificates of deposit," Working Papers in Banking, Finance and Microeconomics 86-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Chance, Don M, 1990. " Default Risk and the Duration of Zero Coupon Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 265-74, March.
    5. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-28, February.
    6. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
    7. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
    8. Ho, Thomas S. Y. & Singer, Ronald F., 1982. "Bond indenture provisions and the risk of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 375-406, December.
    9. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen, 1995. "Default Risk Insurance And Incomplete Markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 187-195.
    10. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    11. Herbert Baer & Elijah Brewer, 1986. "Uninsured deposits as a source of market discipline: some new evidence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 23-31.
    12. Cook, Douglas O. & Spellman, Lewis J., 1991. "Federal financial guarantees and the occasional market pricing of default risk: Evidence from insured deposits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1113-1130, December.
    13. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. " Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1351-60, December.
    14. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
    15. Ellis, David M. & Flannery, Mark J., 1992. "Does the debt market assess large banks, risk? : Time series evidence from money center CDs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 481-502, December.
    16. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    17. Pitts, C G C & Selby, M J P, 1983. " The Pricing of Corporate Debt: A Further Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1311-13, September.
    18. Cooper, Ian A & Mello, Antonio S, 1991. " The Default Risk of Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 597-620, June.
    19. Lee, C Jevons, 1981. "The Pricing of Corporate Debt: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1187-89, December.
    20. Robert Jarrow & Dilip Madan, 1995. "Option Pricing Using The Term Structure Of Interest Rates To Hedge Systematic Discontinuities In Asset Returns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 311-336.
    21. James, Christopher, 1988. "The use of loan sales and standby letters of credit by commercial banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 395-422.
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    Cited by:
    1. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Li Chen & H. Vincent Poor, 2003. "Credit Risk Modeling and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Finance 0312009, EconWPA.
    3. Vink, Dennis, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of Asset-Backed Securitization," MPRA Paper 10382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2008.
    4. Chen, Cho-Jieh & Panjer, Harry, 2003. "Unifying discrete structural models and reduced-form models in credit risk using a jump-diffusion process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 357-380, October.

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