Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World

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Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World

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Howard Kunreuther

Abstract

The tragic attacks of September 11 th and the recent bioterrorist threats have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty on the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This paper discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception to develop risk management options for dealing with extreme events. In particular it suggests ways that the expertise of members from the Society for Risk Analysis can apply their talents to the risks associated with terrorism and discusses the changing roles of the public and private sectors in dealing with extreme events.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 02-08.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:02-08

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2002-04-15 (All new papers)
NEP-IAS-2002-04-15 (Insurance Economics)

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Fischhoff, Baruch, 1994. "What forecasts (seem to) mean," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 387-403, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stone, Eric R. & Yates, J. Frank & Parker, Andrew M., 1994. "Risk Communication: Absolute versus Relative Expressions of Low-Probability Risks," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 387-408, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hsee, Christopher K & Kunreuther, Howard C, 2000. " The Affection Effect in Insurance Decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 141-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kunreuther, Howard & Novemsky, Nathan & Kahneman, Daniel, 2001. " Making Low Probabilities Useful," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 103-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal, 2002. "Interdependent Security: The Case of Identical Agents," NBER Working Papers 8871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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