Health and Welfare Services Expenditure in an Aging World
AbstractThe world's population is aging, albeit at different rates in different countries. IIASA is building an economic-demographic model for exploring the consequences on the global macroeconomy and has so far concentrated on impacts mediated through public and private pension systems. It now wishes to extend the model to cover other sectors whose provision is also highly age-sensitive, including health and welfare services. This paper explores the consequences of population aging for these vital services and considers the basic mechanisms fueling their growth. These mechanisms fall into essentially two categories: the first is related to the biomedical processes of aging which can lead to chronic illness and disability in old age. The second concerns the costs of treatment and long-term care which, in turn, are a function of medical technology and institutional factors, how services are delivered, and who bear the costs. Using simple but explicit projection methodologies, we project health care and disability-related expenditure two major world regions, corresponding to more- and less developed countries (MDCs and LDCs). The key policy-related conclusions are: - Aging will overtake population growth as the main demographic driver of health expenditure growth, but its effect will be less than technological and institutional factors. - Health expenditure will expand rapidly in LDCs (relative to GDP) to the same sorts of levels currently observed in MDCs. - The number of disabled will grow substantially, but will level out in MDCs by 2050 (earlier for all but the oldest age groups), while the number of disabled in all age groups will continue to grow in LDCs. Assuming that most care of the disabled continues to be provided by the family and community, projected increases in disability-related expenditure are modest.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir99035.
Date of creation: Sep 1999
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-10-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-1999-10-13 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-HEA-1999-10-13 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- F.L. MacKellar & H. Reisen, 1998. "International Diversification of Pension Assets Is No Panacea for Population Aging," Working Papers ir98034, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
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NBER Working Papers
6114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David M. Cutler & Ellen Meara, 1998. "The Medical Costs of the Young and Old: A Forty-Year Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 215-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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