Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Future Population of China: Prospects to 2045 by Place of Residence and by Level of Education

Contents:

Author Info

  • G-Y. Cao
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Using methods of multi-state population projection, the population of China up to 2045 was studied by simultaneous interacting states of educational categories and urban/rural residence in three alternative future paths. The results anticipate that in 2045, more than 60% of the population will have secondary education, while this was the case for only 8% of the population in 1964. This study not only produces educational projections, it also provides regular population projections by age, sex, and urban/rural place of residence. In the coming decades, China will reach its peak in total population, working population, and aging population in different times under low, medium and high scenarios. According to results of this study, an important question will face Chinese policy makers in the context of sustainable socioeconomic and environmental development: How should the anticipated socioeconomic developments in the coming decades be figured into the demographic trade-off between rapid fertility decline in the near term and rapid population aging in the long term?

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-00-026.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-00-026.ps
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir00026.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Apr 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00026

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg
    Phone: +43-2236-807-0
    Fax: +43-2236-71313
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.html
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. H.M. Yousif & A. Goujon & W. Lutz, 1996. "Future Population and Education Trends in the Countries of North Africa," Working Papers rr96011, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.