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2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 4014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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   • James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 95-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
4. Joseph G. Haubrich & Ann M. Dombrosky, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35. [Downloadable!]
5. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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   • James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2000-23, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
   • Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-60, May.
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   • Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
7. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
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9. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads," NBER Working Papers 3486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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   • Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
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    Other versions:
    • Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1994. "Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?," NBER Working Papers 3879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth Kuttner, 1993. "Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 213-254 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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    • Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
    • Dufour, J.M. & Renault, E., 1995. "Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory," Cahiers de recherche 9538, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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1. J. Breitung & D. Jagodzinski, . "Prognoseeigenschaften alternativer Indikatoren für die Konjunkturentwicklung in Deutschland," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2002-36, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.