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Projecting Long-Term Primary Energy Consumption

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  • Zsuzsanna Csereklyei

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Stefan Humer

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

In this paper we use the long-term empirical relationship among primary energy consumption, real income, physical capital, population and technology, obtained by averaged panel error correction models, to project the long-term primary energy consumption of 56 countries up to 2100. In forecasting long-term primary energy consumption, we work with four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework, assuming different challenges to adaptation and mitigation. We find that in all scenarios, China, the United States and India will be the largest energy consumers, while highly growing countries will also significantly contribute to energy use. We observe for most scenarios a sharp increase in global energy consumption, followed by a levelling-out and a decrease towards the second half of the century. The reasons behind this pattern are not only slower population growth, but also infrastructure saturation and increased total factor productivity. This means, as countries move towards more knowledge based societies, and higher energy efficiency, their primary energy usage is likely to decrease as a result. Global primary energy consumption is expected however to increase significantly in the coming decades, thus increasing the pressure on policy makers to cope with the questions of energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation at the same time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp152.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp152

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Keywords: Primary Energy Demand; Projections; Panel Cointegration; Model Averaging;

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  1. Paul J. Burke, 2011. "The National-Level Energy Ladder and its Carbon Implications," CCEP Working Papers, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University 1116, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously," NBER Working Papers 8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Zsuzsanna Csereklyei & Stefan Humer, 2012. "Modelling Primary Energy Consumption under Model Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics wuwp147, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  4. Jakob, Michael & Haller, Markus & Marschinski, Robert, 2012. "Will history repeat itself? Economic convergence and convergence in energy use patterns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-104.
  5. Goodfellow, Martin J. & Williams, Hugo R. & Azapagic, Adisa, 2011. "Nuclear renaissance, public perception and design criteria: An exploratory review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6199-6210, October.
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