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A geosimulation model of economic activity for supporting spatial planning and economic policy

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  • Jung Hun Yang

    ()

  • Dick Ettema
  • Koen Frenken
  • Frank van Oort
  • Evert-Jan Visser

Abstract

The present paper presents a geosimulation agent-based model of firm development that is based on firms’ behavioural rules. The model describes growth, closure, spin-offs and relocation of firms in 21 industrial sectors in the Netherlands, based on a dataset of all individual firms in the Netherlands. An important aspect of the model is the potential interaction that exists between firms, which is represented by various agglomeration indicators. The indicators represent the effect of the distance to other firms, which may have implications fro market potential, agglomeration advantages and congestion/competition. By including positive and negative attraction effects a proper description of concentration and deconcentration tendencies is achieved. The interactions may take place on difference scales, depending on the type of effect (agglomeration advantage, competition for space) and economic sector. The interactions affect growth, closure and spin-off of the individual firms in the model. The model is applied to simulate the distribution of economic development in the Netherlands during a ten year period (1998-2007). The simulation results are then compared to existing 2007 data. This comparison confirms the effectiveness of the model. Simulation carried out with and without various positive and negative agglomeration factors indicate that including agglomeration factors into the model seriously adds to the quality of predictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa10p1016.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa10p1016

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  1. Joris Knoben & Roderik Ponds & Frank van Oort, 2011. "Employment from new firm formation in the Netherlands: Agglomeration economies and the Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship," Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 135-157, April.
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  9. Daan P. van Soest & Shelby Gerking & Frank G. van Oort, 2006. "Spatial Impacts Of Agglomeration Externalities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 881-899.
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  11. Pellenbarg, P.H. & Wissen, L.J.G. van & Dijk, J. van, 2002. "Firm relocation: state of the art and research prospects," Research Report 02D31, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  12. Gerke J. Hoogstra & Jouke van Dijk, 2004. "Explaining Firm Employment Growth: Does Location Matter?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3_4), pages 179-192, 04.
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