Using firm demographic microsimulation to evaluate land use and transport scenario evaluation - model calibration

Existing integrated land use transport interaction models simulate the level of employment in (aggregated) zones and lack the individual firm as a decision making unit. This research tries to improve the behavioural foundation of these models by applying a firm demographic modelling approach that first of all accounts for the individual firm as a decision making unit and secondly represents the urban system with high spatial detail. A firm demographic approach models transitions in the state of individual firms by simulating transitions and events such as the relocation decision, growth or shrinkage of firms or the death of a firm. Important advantage of such a decomposed approach is that it offers the opportunity to account for accessibility in each event in the desired way. The firm demographic model is linked to an urban transport model in order to obtain a dynamic simulation of mobility (and accessibility) developments. The paper describes the firm demographic model specifications as well as the interaction of the model with the urban transport model. The integrated simulation model can be used to analyse the effects of different spatial and transport planning scenarios on the location of economic activities and mobility.