Congestion on risky routes with risk adverse drivers
AbstractWe study the impact of information on risk adverse drivers who maximize their von Neumann and Morgerstern expected utility (rather than minimizing expected travel time). The preferences of the users are described by their utility functions. Beside the (potentially inconsistent) mean variance model used so far in transportation, we consider three other standard utility functions: the mean standard deviation model, and the CARA and CRRA utility functions. We show that maximization of expected utility provides a more general formulation than minimization of expected travel time (the latter case corresponds to the standard Wardrop principle). We illustrate the proposed approach with a simple network which consists in one origin/one destination and two routes in parallel. Total demand is inelastic. Capacity on one route is constant and on the other route it is stochastic, and depends on the states of nature, with two possible values. We assume that all users have the same value of time but that they differ in their risk aversion parameter. Equilibrium travel time then depends on the distribution of risk aversion. We consider two polar information regimes: no information and full information. We study the differential impacts of information according to the level of risk aversion, and compute the social value of information. We introduce a formula to compute the value of information that is the individual willingness to pay for information (or in economic terms, the compensating variation). Moreover, we find that optimal route choice may depend on global factors (and not only on local traffic conditions). This has serious implications on the design of driver information systems. Finally, we study road pricing when users are risk neutral (and minimize the expected travel time) and when users are risk adverse. We compare the level of tolls, as well as the benefits of road pricing with and without taking into account risk aversion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa05p423.
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Augasse 2-6, 1090 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.ersa.org
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2006-02-05 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-UPT-2006-02-05 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zhang, Rong & Verhoef, Erik T., 2006.
"A monopolistic market for advanced traveller information systems and road use efficiency,"
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,
Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 424-443, June.
- Rong Zhang & Erik T. Verhoef, 2004. "A Monopolistic Market for Advanced Traveller Information Systems and Road Use Efficiency," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-014/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- de Palma, André & Picard, Nathalie, 2005. "Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 295-324, May.
- Daniel McFadden, 2001.
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 351-378, June.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Richard Arnott, 1989. "Does Providing Information to Drivers Reduce Traffic Congestion?," Discussion Papers 864, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1997.
"Simulating Travel Reliability,"
University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers
qt30w220k0, University of California Transportation Center.
- Joop Hartog & Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Nicole Jonker, 2000.
"On a Simple Survey Measure of Individual Risk Aversion,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
00-074/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Joop Hartog & Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonell & Nicole Jonker, 2000. "On a Simple Survey Measure of Individual Risk Aversion," CESifo Working Paper Series 363, CESifo Group Munich.
- André de Palma & Nathalie Picard, 2004. "Route Choice behavior with risk averse users," THEMA Working Papers 2004-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1996. "Information and Usage of Free-Access Congestible Facilities with Stochastic Capacity and Demand," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(1), pages 181-203, February.
- David Levinson, 2003. "The Value of Advanced Traveler Information Systems for Route Choice," Working Papers 200307, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Camerer, Colin F, 1989. " An Experimental Test of Several Generalized Utility Theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 61-104, April.
- Richard Arnott & Andre De Palma & Robin Lindsey, 1993. "Information And Usage Of Free-Access Congestible Facilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 238, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249, June.
- Machina, Mark J, 1987. "Choice under Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 121-54, Summer.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.